How accurate were past yield estimates?
This page compares held-out country estimates with published official yields. Each test year was left out while the model was fit. It describes past performance; it is not a promise about the current harvest.
Model-v1.1 candidate; leave-one-year-out comparison · 2000–2024 held-out country-years. Equal weight per usable country-year. 42 quality-flagged official records were excluded from this headline.
Results by country
| Country | Held-out years | Model error | Trend error | Lower error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 21 | 35.7% | 35.2% | Trend |
| Angola | 25 | 28.2% | 26.6% | Trend |
| Argentina | 25 | 15.1% | 13.4% | Trend |
| Australia | 25 | 8.3% | 6.6% | Trend |
| Austria | 18 | 15.5% | 15.0% | Trend |
| Azerbaijan | 13 | 152.4% | 152.5% | Model |
| Bangladesh | 25 | 35.0% | 35.7% | Model |
| Belarus | 25 | 5.3% | 3.1% | Trend |
| Benin | 25 | 7.2% | 6.5% | Trend |
| Bhutan | 24 | 26.1% | 25.0% | Trend |
| Botswana | 24 | 34.6% | 34.5% | Trend |
| Bulgaria | 18 | 14.1% | 14.0% | Trend |
| Burkina Faso | 25 | 8.0% | 7.3% | Trend |
| Burundi | 25 | 7.3% | 3.8% | Trend |
| Cameroon | 25 | 6.8% | 5.8% | Trend |
| Central African Republic | 25 | 4.7% | 3.7% | Trend |
| Chad | 25 | 14.1% | 14.3% | Model |
| China, Taiwan Province of | 25 | 6.1% | 4.9% | Trend |
| China, mainland | 25 | 10.0% | 9.5% | Trend |
| Congo | 24 | 3.4% | 2.6% | Trend |
| Croatia | 18 | 16.3% | 15.6% | Trend |
| Czechia | 18 | 9.0% | 8.1% | Trend |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 25 | 7.2% | 5.1% | Trend |
| Democratic People's Republic of Korea | 25 | 3.2% | 1.7% | Trend |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 25 | 3.4% | 0.2% | Trend |
| Eritrea | 25 | 35.8% | 34.0% | Trend |
| Ethiopia | 25 | 8.6% | 7.5% | Trend |
| France | 17 | 6.4% | 4.9% | Trend |
| Gambia | 25 | 17.2% | 18.0% | Model |
| Ghana | 25 | 12.6% | 12.1% | Trend |
| Greece | 12 | 3.0% | 1.7% | Trend |
| Guinea | 25 | 6.8% | 5.4% | Trend |
| Guinea-Bissau | 25 | 23.5% | 23.7% | Model |
| Hungary | 18 | 15.1% | 15.0% | Trend |
| India | 25 | 7.4% | 8.3% | Model |
| Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 25 | 17.9% | 16.6% | Trend |
| Iraq | 21 | 32.0% | 31.6% | Trend |
| Japan | 25 | 4.9% | 4.2% | Trend |
| Kazakhstan | 25 | 15.8% | 16.6% | Model |
| Kenya | 25 | 28.2% | 26.5% | Trend |
| Kyrgyzstan | 25 | 17.4% | 17.5% | Model |
| Libya | 25 | 4.8% | 3.1% | Trend |
| Malawi | 25 | 15.5% | 16.1% | Model |
| Maldives | 20 | 7.1% | 6.6% | Trend |
| Mali | 25 | 11.8% | 12.4% | Model |
| Mauritania | 25 | 46.0% | 47.8% | Model |
| Mexico | 10 | 87.8% | 83.1% | Trend |
| Morocco | 25 | 3.1% | 2.6% | Trend |
| Mozambique | 25 | 28.0% | 27.2% | Trend |
| Myanmar | 25 | 8.1% | 8.8% | Model |
| Namibia | 25 | 46.2% | 44.6% | Trend |
| Nepal | 25 | 5.7% | 2.8% | Trend |
| Niger | 25 | 11.1% | 12.6% | Model |
| Nigeria | 25 | 22.7% | 22.9% | Model |
| North Macedonia | 17 | 3.6% | 3.2% | Trend |
| Pakistan | 25 | 11.4% | 10.2% | Trend |
| Poland | 15 | 14.9% | 14.0% | Trend |
| Republic of Korea | 25 | 7.5% | 5.5% | Trend |
| Republic of Moldova | 23 | 63.4% | 63.3% | Trend |
| Russian Federation | 25 | 13.5% | 14.1% | Model |
| Rwanda | 25 | 33.5% | 34.9% | Model |
| Saudi Arabia | 25 | 12.9% | 11.5% | Trend |
| Senegal | 25 | 13.5% | 15.5% | Model |
| Serbia | 19 | 11.4% | 10.8% | Trend |
| Sierra Leone | 25 | 13.9% | 13.6% | Trend |
| Slovakia | 18 | 18.7% | 17.5% | Trend |
| Slovenia | 18 | 21.4% | 21.1% | Trend |
| South Africa | 25 | 4.3% | 1.9% | Trend |
| South Sudan | 13 | 10.2% | 8.2% | Trend |
| Spain | 18 | 18.0% | 17.8% | Trend |
| Sri Lanka | 25 | 10.2% | 10.3% | Model |
| Sudan | 13 | 31.8% | 29.2% | Trend |
| Switzerland | 16 | 20.8% | 21.3% | Model |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 24 | 25.9% | 24.6% | Trend |
| Tajikistan | 16 | 43.4% | 40.2% | Trend |
| Togo | 25 | 12.5% | 12.7% | Model |
| Türkiye | 25 | 10.5% | 9.8% | Trend |
| Uganda | 25 | 6.5% | 5.2% | Trend |
| Ukraine | 25 | 13.1% | 14.1% | Model |
| United Republic of Tanzania | 25 | 14.1% | 14.3% | Model |
| United States of America | 25 | 22.3% | 27.4% | Model |
| Uzbekistan | 25 | 32.0% | 28.0% | Trend |
| Viet Nam | 25 | 11.7% | 10.9% | Trend |
| Yemen | 25 | 10.1% | 9.1% | Trend |
| Zambia | 25 | 14.6% | 15.0% | Model |
| Zimbabwe | 25 | 29.6% | 30.8% | Model |
Sources and limits
FAOSTAT and USDA PSD published millet yields · USDA NASS annual crop summaries
- This is a historical held-out comparison, not a guarantee of current-season accuracy.
- National official yields are compared with country-level model estimates; they do not validate every district or field.
- Quality-flagged official records are excluded from the headline score; their count is shown.
- Percent errors are the unweighted mean absolute percentage error across country-year records.
The comparison uses the committed held-out case file, which records actual official yield, trend prediction, model prediction, and quality flags. It does not establish subnational or field-level accuracy.